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(runner up thread title: "white papers matter") i am trying to understand the bind XJ finds himself in w/rt to the failure of zero covid, to the point of a foxconn factory swelling up with infection and then exploding out the walls, like when a cell is simply so compromised with virii and goes pop and blasts it everywhere. so now there are protests, probably already a violent crackdown. but really, why reboot tiananmen square where there are cameraphones and journalists all over? it seems it'd make sense to somehow de-escalate this? that yes, XJ has backed himself into a corner claiming zero-covid is the answer, in part because their vaccine is crap, but now also because he's just in too deep to revert. ...or is he? and this is what i don't understand. i know that, by chinese standards, this would be like a kick in the balls, but... perhaps it's just, here, and not harsh? just get up and say: "zero-covid was wrong. we're still going to track and test and post the alerts but we won't lock you down anymore, and meanwhile we're ordering vaccines from all over because we need to get this nailed down" and the last part, like, yeah, you could even gloss over the chinese vaccine being crap; claim it's just the scale... order a bunch in a hurry but no. is it childishness? that there are limits to my understanding of "saving face," that maybe this would be like the black mirror episode where the PM fucks the pig for him? or maybe... you deliberately turn up the heat, to shake out everyone who would seriously mobilize and protest if things got bad, and boom, get rid of all those people; you're left with the sheep? or classic boring commie bureaucracy, where everyone's so shit scared of the grand poobah no one gives him any real answers ("the snafu principle")? tony halp. |
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hmm, hm. that a lot of china's 3bil people are rural, elderly, no teef, etc. and even if you can get 3bil doses of a vaccine worth a shit, how do you even get it out to all of them? shit needs to be refridgerated then, also, maybe he's just decided he doesn't care if the cameras are on, and catch a tank trying to run over someone trying to pull a certain something again. like: did you see that? good |
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oh, gosh, so much on tap, here... what do i go with? a) did you get that link off reddit? [like a child stealing a reflector from a neighbor's lawn] b) it's so nice i can get reddit's greatest hits without even having to remove it from my pihole blacklist c) good samples, thx |
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i also get that he's new to his third term and he's worried if he caves, he'll set a precedent. like: "shit, then these fuckers can get anything out of me" not that turning around on this would have any impact on his iron rule; it's that this is how dictators think, and if they didn't think this way, they wouldn't have made it to the top i see it more like one of the more salient bits of advice my father gave me about women: if a woman is mad, just apologize. it doesn't matter if you're right. it doesn't matter if you don't even understand. just apologize. it certainly doesn't cut it as a blanket approach to all arguments, but darn does it work that i feel i'm missing the boat culturally somewhere when i say this -- throw your people a bone and they'll go back to be polite and apolitical, mostly, and view as a more compassionate leader. clever PR could even turn it into a win, even if you say "fuck vaccines." but again, i'm missing something here. like they need covid lockdown controls to keep the iphones cranking out, or they've come to enjoy the control so much they're unwilling to give it up etc |
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is it difficult being a former gifted child |
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i don't think that's simpsons. family guy? |
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after the initial post my first thought is: no politician can stay in office after admitting your failiing politics in an important matter like this, by western standards this would be a classic resign. is it even woers in china, i dont know. now could xj move into a diferent direction as you suggested and de-escalate? it should be worth a try. maybe the whole administration is afraid to give in just a tiny bit, fearing an avalanche of demands following, but the genie is out of the bottle anyways i guess. im not up to date, but protests and shit may be going down in regions not everybody cares about and would rather live on than stand up for. but yeah basically that is what i ask myself every single time, why dont they make amends. |
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are you posting nice muscly men for mermaidman |
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no politician can stay in office after admitting your failiing politics in an important matter like this it is a dictatorship, they have a panopticon with a level of [tech] never seen thus far; even 1984 missed 8/10 of it. so i guess my point is more: no one can do shit; why not just apologize and pivot? would certainly be better for your economy. the puzzle to me is, just... why not? what is the downside, from their perspective? tony just does reaktor, right? so i'm not sure he'd know combing through piles of code for six or seven hours and then finally finding the thing that's actually causing it and people code for the serotonin rush alone. but i also love the chase itself that's all i'm here for. it's just a puzzle. tony quoting reddit quoting... no, the "former gifted child" actually seems more like something to write gushingly honest medium.com articles in. another mystery now could xj move into a diferent direction as you suggested and de-escalate? it should be worth a try. maybe the whole administration is afraid to give in just a tiny bit, fearing an avalanche of demands following, but the genie is out of the bottle anyways i guess. yes, you have it now. just keep picking at it: what if they like the control the lockdown gives them, and intend to just run stuff that way now? what if they deliberately brought it to a simmer just so they could rapidly build a list of who would crack and protest; round them up? like, i've not even touched the paranoid nutter theories that i've heard floating about yet: the foxconn thing was a deliberate experiment to see what'd happen. or tack opposite paranoia: this is all western mediawashing to pressure china to soften restrictions for the sake of the US [and global, sure] economy. or they're simply broadsided, it's pure chaos, and everyone is too shit scared to tell XJ real shit and it's a spiral of crap decisions actively ongoing fun. |
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China is preparing for ww3 |
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"why did they let the tensions become so high?" i think that is a much more effective question. that.. "why don't they ease up? why didn't they before?" and we're in a whole muddle of [where are we in the timeline, which concerns are we mixing] china has an intricately woven tapestry of social control, and to say that it went down like the FTX implosion, like sometimes life just creeps up on you --Sam Bankman-Fried, Fallen Crypto Twat ...no, i don't see this happening in china. if it wasn't intended, it would have been dissolved much sooner. meaning, it probably was intended... the Chief Twit would call this a Hot Tub Discussion i guess |
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China is preparing for ww3 it's easy to get lost, here. compare it to worrying about the idea that you might get randomly hit by a bus, one day: approach A: buying life insurance and making sure your music is on a marked hard drive and then moving on to writing more music; farting on children at supermarkets etc approach B: spend all day hiding in your house, terrified that even sighting a bus, the driver could you seeing the bus, and it'd veer at you, and run you over on your doorstep; that's what you get for going out! stay in bed ------- got that? now, hold it in your head as i say: all nations are preparing for ww3 to some degree. putin is starting to itch for ww3 because he's getting old and someone will rasputin him sooner or later. XJ has a few decades but he's worried his window for nabbing taiwan will close once the US finishes building chip fabs like starbucks so you have putin the soon-to-be-doddering-nutter [who knows he's soon to be a doddering nutter], then XJ has no such concerns, just an impossible boner for taiwan... but then he's watching russia having a rather rough time of it; and no. not now. let's just see if we can get the americans to send over the new drones so we can rip them off from the wreckage if we get lucky then i zoom back out, and "china is preparing for ww3" and i kind of get what you mean, but dfjgkldfg what do you mean |
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China is preparing for ww3 actually, ok, there is a worrying interpretation, i see before invading taiwan, you turn up the heat, smoke out the potential rabble-rousers, demoralize everyone, on the heels of some being in lockdown for over 100 days, yeah, i guess that would smooth things over for the invasion. no protests. just willing conscripts. or outwardly-willing, anyways. that is worrying; that this is cleaning house before their move but ww3? i cite standard thug logic: don't shit where you eat. they don't want to blow the planet up, they just want taiwan for strategic reasons, same as russia's mountain-locked geography makes them want the strait for strategic reasons i mean, though, it could cause it. and they're preparing for that possibility. but they just want taiwan for the moment. |
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here, i need tony again. if china were to invade taiwan on dec 7, what would be the reddit phrase for this? it's not virtue farming; what is it? (i'd just call it "pissing on the alamo") |
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tempo change in that song is killer i still think of it sometimes when i get bold and grab the master tempo knob for the whole track |
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I was looking for their song I predict a riot but they didn't even do that song It's like we're living in a fireworks factory then Putin and xi are smoking in there I guess Putin will nuke us sooner or later then China will send peacekeepers via the UN to 'clean the mess' under their rule of course. |
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bogarting from neal stephenson's wonderful book "cryptonomicon" ~ 1) the japanese army brass would kneel before the emperor wearing -- i will do my best to quote this accurately -- "...these elaborate thousand-thread headbands that say things like 'i am dogshit'" and in this context no one has the stones to tell him they're losing the war. 2) that same attitude led to all the emperor's mice charging out to the battlefield singing the national anthem, minimal training; these are just rural peasants. no unit cohesion; too distracted raping villagers... that a single marine comes in and takes out a whole squad. kamikaze attacks almost never worked; most got blown up from ways of and laughed at. it'll be worse than the invading russian army if they have to start digging into the yokels for conscription; a horde of disorganized rapey peasants. so i'm not sure it'll go terribly well for china there, in the sense of, like, once they run out of, like, the actually good soldiers, they can literally throw a few hundred million rapey peasants at the situation, knowing tens of millions will die, but this was planned; it's to be like a sci-fi/horror movie about suffocating in a firehose of ants or maybe this is all wrong and they'll unveil a practical fusion reactor tomorrow and freely share the technology with the world. and then quantum supremacy? it's too important for just us to have; here you all have it too |
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It's like we're living in a fireworks factory then Putin and xi are smoking in there this time, sir, you have nailed it. this quote is succinct, funny, on-point... and, i fear, representative of actual reality (but then edges of the zappo's guy going out doing whippets next to a campfire in a shed; he didn't intend to go out either) |
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Tyrants gonna tyranny |
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i think it goes back down to something something, "...the only way i can get mum's attention is misbehaving." then they send the Lloigor after 'em; you've got their attention now |
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US noticed that China noticed that crucial fabs that build the true top-notch shit for the US are in, oh, taiwan (TSMC etc) and south korea (hynix etc) and, like i said, now US is build fabs like starbucks. but takes five years to get those online... so, shit, more export bans on china, no 10nm for you. arguably does quite slow them down, but perhaps not best tactical move, because now their current edge is shrinking with their chip supply. meanwhile, russia couldn't rub 10nm together with every drop of oil they can sell, last i hear was something like "we're stoked we think we can do 28nm* by 2030" and then meanwhile they don't mention that, even at this crass level, their chip yields are still shit. that i recently heard... the russians apparently ordered thousands of washing machines to part out for chips. i lost it in giggles for a while before remembering of a washing machine that... apparently, to japanese person, even if an apartment is the size of a shoebox, if it does not have its own washer, it's not technically an apartment. out of this culture comes this majestic beast, combined washer/dryer with a touchscreen larger than most tablets, an internet connection, and a dedicated button to... dry shoes? i stop laughing, and think: actually, yeah. drive a touchscreen, control some industrial equipment, internet connection... you could totally part these out for missle computers if you were desperate then i lose it in giggles again have to appreciate the lighter side of all this. it's like back when they were reportedly taking apart speak 'n' spells for their missiles in the 80s. ET phone home *nm = nanometers. smaller = more transistors per surface area of silicon = better faster smaller chips |
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so i'm just googling all the semi stuff, making sure i got my numbers right, and where can they make what, anyways? this wafer yields a delightful chip of an it opens with In recent years, the United States has continued to exert pressure on China's semiconductor industry. As a result, China has not made much progress in the field of advanced semiconductors. As long as there are Chinese companies that can develop advanced chips that threaten U.S. semiconductor hegemony, they will be suppressed by the United States. There was ZTE, followed by Huawei and SMIC and right away, we are delight. someone chinese wrote that article. you telegraphed it with the bit i've embolded. here, do we need more? However, today's facts have slapped it in the face. China has made a new breakthrough in its lithography machine, and it is still in the advanced 14-nanometer lithography machine, although it cannot be compared with the current state-of-the-art, capable of producing 3-nanometer chips. Compared with lithography machines, it also proves that China already has the strength to develop advanced lithography machines. other facts today and tomorrow, however, slap today's facts in the face, with facts that slap today's face today: you've lifted the 14nm gear; are your yields not shit yet? no? ok. we're still chopping the next rung off the ladder; figure out 10 on your own. we're busy with 3 right now and see you soon with 2. russia is flush with 45nm chips if you need a speak and spell and this is all a good laugh until, again, maybe not the best tactical move to force their hand like that -- seems tactically reasonable to then move before their edge dwindles further, because they might not be this far ahead again (...so what not go nab taiwan with all the shiny new 3nm fabs?) |
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i feel like i need to write a book just to understand this crap within my own head. then the book wouldn't tell anyone truly up on this much of anything they didn't already know, except for perhaps juxtaposing a few concepts that were too disparate to have been covered already. and no one would read it anyways i really can't afford it, but i've ordered the behringer 303 knockoff, the one with the mods, in yellow, because i've wanted that for about a whole year and even though i doubt it uses 10nm it's still very made in china. maybe there are other things that are more practical to have thought of; my printer functions about as often as the cicadas. but no that's what's important to me; this will keep me happy and distracted throughout ww303 |
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by the time you wrote a book about it, it d be obsolete. its impossible to keep up with the world. especially since not all developments break through immedeately. but i know the feel to kind of get a hold of all information at once. so, these times get me railed and the one topic i read about most is climate change and fucking up the planet, so before the recent fridays for future demonstration i made a leaflet. because every time i went on the streets some doofus comes along asking "eh, what are you doing?" like they never heard of it before. i have to admit that these gatherings dont attract or inform people. even the slogans only work if you know the topic already, and (i dont know how this is possible, but many people dont know shit about climate change) the only thing they seem to know is, "oh heres this kid who says i cannot drive my fueled car." and buy a fuck greta button for their bike instead. oh well so i made a leaflet to bring the most important facts and what to do about it as a person on point and what we ask of the politics. and this does help me as a person to know what im talking about instead o getting a fit when the next doofus comes around. |
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basically, im this close to become a rambling old madman on the street |
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putting something into writing, it forces you to be more specific than you would in your head. that you start putting it down; you get jammed up... no, wait... i need tony to answer this. or, well, i don't, but it'd be funny to try and get him to. but, now that i'm here... i'm writing a book, i'm figuring it out, but people are coming back and challenging this or that and i go back to my strange weasel trip and human dialogue is a computational process on being a rambling old madman on the street: it comes down to a combination of volume control and quality control, doesn't it? a rambling madman has neither volume control nor quality control. but you can be completely right and still viewed as a rambling old madman if you just yell it at people on the street all disorderly. or throw soup on a van gogh and then glue yourself to the wall. perfect example, that: heart is in the right place but brain is up the arse |
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crop of articles last 24 hours or so has provided relevant morsels. earlier, i said so now there are protests, probably already a violent crackdown. but really, why reboot tiananmen square where there are cameraphones and journalists all over? it seems it'd make sense to somehow de-escalate this? that, actually, when i wrote that, i was spot on; it would simply need another six or eight hours for it to snow up [in] news feeds. but also when i wrote it, i was absentmindedly weaving in a tidbit from seeing hundreds of protest/china screencaps -- everyone is recording video this is actually the key, it seems. that the chinese panopticon is incredibly sophisticated, but it still relies on a shit-ton of manual labor. so if thousands of people upload vids of the same protest from very slight different angles, it swamps the system, and a bunch get through. i can dig up references for this next part: they are caching videos on twitter* so they can pull them and re-upload repeatedly. they are doing the same shit you do to dodge youtube copyright cop; uploading videos where it's a phone recording of another phone playing a video. flipping it horizontal. tagging in bastardized cantonese the censors cannot follow. that it has certain analogies to a DDOS attack; spamming the chinese censors to the point where, some article said, "we would need at least ten times the staff" but then china still china. they've deployed all the cops and... tanks, yes, tanks, who wants to stand in front of one this time? just try us * on twitter they are spamming crude porn links to try and dilute the networking of activists. it bothers me that so few get the "dilute, don't argue" part of controlling a social media outbreak, and even more than the chinese definitely get it |
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i am also reading stuff like: a lot of people don't even know of the protests, until... they just walk into one as they're headed to the store one day, and... hell, i'll join in. i suppose that really is the dangerous part for china. that people for whom the censorship has been 100% effective, they cross paths with a protest, just by accident... and say: fuck it, me too, i'm in so it makes sense people there recognize a sort of tinderbox atmosphere, as the party actively attempts to starve the fire of oxygen. they've already woken up quite a few people by being in the streets, and so now china disrupts; tanks. barriers. 2^4 grips of cops in riot gear, looking bored, standing around, in case people might gather. university students sent home since they've traditionally been a hotbed of activism. that the party beats people in dark rooms for a bit, next come the long prison sentences, and i do worry "they can't put us all in jail" will collapse back into the usual "uhhh no thanks someone else can go to jail" and who can blame them in that nut farm. i'm not sure what outcome they even expect. perhaps they've not thought that far. that i doubt china will lose it this hard, but there is some definite french revolution potential, because there are a lot more people there growing up chronically fucked than there are party bigwigs... or even cops. the cops follow the line because they have a steady paycheck. what'd really make things interesting is if a few flipped and started helping the protestors, because it's their relatives and neighbors screaming at them, whose heads they're supposed to bash in for protesting but this planet. not holding my breath |
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"the snafu principle" -- thanks R. A. Wilson states that the grand poobah, the eye at the top of the pyramid, stalin or whatever, relies on all his underlings to communicate what is actually going on. but then, paranoia, is someone conspiring to take my place? so you need a secret police force. but then that gets too powerful, so you form an even more secret police force to police the secret police force and they rapidly become more and more cut off from reality as neither the police nor the secret police nor the ordinary yokes want to go up against the firing squad, so eventually everyone is just making up bullshit to protect themselves. practically: if a few police squads go in with the protestors... and beijing goes full paranoia about whether they can trust their own cops... and then they start cracking down on the cops... JENGA but, no, i'm sure the cops are tight-knit thug gangs that don't mix it up with reality enough to develop empathy. at least XJ better hope |
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Guangzhou in the south, Shijiazhuang in the north, Chengdu in the southwest and other major cities announced that they were easing testing requirements and controls on movement. In some areas, markets and bus service reopened. The announcements didn’t mention last weekend’s protests in Shanghai, Beijing and at least six other cities against the human cost of anti-COVID restrictions that confine millions of people to their homes. But the timing and publicity suggested that President Xi Jinping’s government was trying to mollify public anger after some protesters made the politically explosive demand that he resign. not apologize... in fact, radio silence, whilst very grudgingly lifting restrictions, slightly, in areas that experienced the most complaint. this was an obvious option and i missed it entirely. i suppose i'm not used to thinking like an autocrat. maybe joyrex has some perspective |
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my gosh, it's so obvious now, i feel like an idiot: there are cameras everywhere in china, signs about cameras being everywhere everywhere, you're being watched, they make it quite clear so yes, here are hundreds of people pointing their camerafones at you and your cops at once, like... how do you like it, buddy? that's pretty good, actually. |
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so the part where i said, "i feel like i'm culturally missing the boat somehow" a few chapters ago... here is what actually seems like an actual chinese person attempting to explain what i missed. if you trust the site. i've read bits of it here and there for many years, and it's... fine, really. nothing to write home about, but it's certainly not OAN or whatnot. i looked it up on bad boy wiki p and it's like "their headlines are pretty clickbait sometimes" but also "they've been covering the uyghur thing" and yes, the title, poking a rancid sore on the head of china's dick, TIANANMEN SQUARE STUDENT" and it's valid criticism because if you totally throw out that he was relevant to that thing back then it's still a valid article that at least begins to answer my questions. but then ~insider~ has to sass it up and instead of "guy with a clue offers some reasonable thoughts on the current national psychology" it's... yeah. a bit clickbait. it's fair criticism. but it's irrelevant because i came for the content not the title |
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board ate the link before. still haven't quite sussed the conditions that... oh well. |
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oh they're rehashing a newsweek article newsweek can be kind of crap. but it still feels like this is the best answer to... my, i dunno, fumbling around early in this thread, like... why are they doing it like... ? makes no fucking s |
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"It's hard to predict the outcome of the protests now. But we are already seeing some loosening of the zero-COVID policy, which is a rare display of weakness for Xi Jinping," Fengsuo Zhou, who was a student leader for Tiananmen Square and spent a year in prison before leaving for the U.S. years later, told Newsweek. He said that college students participating in the demonstrations are "going through a baptism of political activism" and becoming the "masters of their own fate" by taking action. "As a survivor of Tiananmen massacre, I am in tears while watching the protesters chanting 'end CCP [Chinese Communist Party]' in Shanghai, the birthplace of CCP," Zhou said. He does not believe Xi's hold on power within the ruling CCP has been degraded because of the protests. But he does believe that this control may also be having a negative impact on the country's ability to handle unexpected situations. "Xi Jinping still has complete control within the CCP. But his tight control also means that the system can't deal with surprises because his underlings aren't willing to take initiatives without explicit instructions from Xi," Zhou said. "Additionally, the zero-COVID system is exhausted already. But at this stage, he is still entrenched." this is kind of like... /thread, thread over. until more developments to puzzle upon, which i'm sure there will be |
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mother of trout. elon musk is going through the exact same problem right now |
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looks they taking your advice what other tyranny could you save? |
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